Introduction

In this brief analysis we use data across various domains, including from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center to draw connections between a given voter’s party affiliation and election results. We will attempt to show how these fine lines painted in the first analysis can be shifted through the influence of independent voters.

Analysis #1 - Population Density: The Fine Lines of Party Affiliation

Expected Correlation between Population Density and Party Affiliation

Population Density of the U.S. from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau2022 House Midterms

According to this basic assumption, we would assume that the any general election would reflect the U.S. general population density distribution map\(_1\).

The map, outlined on the right\(_2\) reflects. the results of the 2022 Midterm races that happened in the House.

The following table\(_3\) maps out each state with respect to their population and population densities. The data for party affiliation comes from samples from the Pew Research Center.

Each U.S. state mapped acording to their population density (as of 2020) and respective political affiliation proportions.
State Population Density Republican Independent Democrat
Alabama 5024279 99.2 0.52 0.13 0.35
Alaska 733391 1.3 0.39 0.29 0.32
Arizona 7151502 62.9 0.40 0.21 0.39
Arkansas 3011524 57.9 0.46 0.16 0.38
California 39538223 253.7 0.30 0.21 0.49
Colorado 5773714 55.7 0.41 0.17 0.42
Connecticut 3605944 744.7 0.32 0.18 0.50
Delaware 989948 508.0 0.29 0.17 0.55
Florida 21538187 401.4 0.37 0.19 0.44
Georgia 10711908 185.6 0.41 0.18 0.41
Hawaii 1455271 226.6 0.28 0.20 0.51
Idaho 1839106 22.3 0.49 0.19 0.32
Illinois 12812508 230.8 0.33 0.19 0.48
Indiana 6785528 189.4 0.42 0.20 0.37
Iowa 3190369 57.1 0.41 0.19 0.40
Kansas 2937880 35.9 0.46 0.23 0.31
Kentucky 4505836 114.1 0.44 0.13 0.43
Louisiana 4657757 107.8 0.41 0.16 0.43
Maine 1362359 44.2 0.36 0.17 0.47
Maryland 6177224 636.1 0.31 0.14 0.55
Massachusetts 7029917 901.2 0.27 0.17 0.56
Michigan 10077331 178.0 0.34 0.19 0.47
Minnesota 5706494 71.7 0.39 0.15 0.46
Mississippi 2961279 63.1 0.44 0.14 0.42
Missouri 6154913 89.5 0.41 0.18 0.42
Montana 1084225 7.4 0.49 0.21 0.30
Nebraska 1961504 25.5 0.47 0.17 0.36
Nevada 3104614 28.3 0.37 0.18 0.46
New Hampshire 1377529 153.8 0.35 0.20 0.44
New Jersey 9288994 1263.0 0.30 0.19 0.51
New Mexico 2117522 17.5 0.37 0.15 0.48
New York 20201249 428.7 0.28 0.19 0.53
North Carolina 10439388 214.7 0.41 0.17 0.43
North Dakota 779094 11.3 0.50 0.18 0.33
Ohio 11799448 288.8 0.42 0.18 0.40
Oklahoma 3959353 57.7 0.45 0.15 0.40
Oregon 4237256 44.1 0.32 0.21 0.47
Pennsylvania 13002700 290.6 0.39 0.15 0.46
Rhode Island 1097379 1061.4 0.30 0.22 0.48
South Carolina 5118425 170.2 0.43 0.18 0.39
South Dakota 886667 11.7 0.53 0.10 0.37
Tennessee 6910840 167.6 0.48 0.15 0.36
Texas 29145505 111.6 0.39 0.21 0.40
Utah 3271616 39.7 0.54 0.16 0.30
Vermont 643077 69.8 0.29 0.14 0.57
Virginia 8631393 218.6 0.43 0.18 0.39
Washington 7705281 115.9 0.33 0.23 0.44
West Virginia 1793716 74.6 0.43 0.16 0.41
Wisconsin 5893718 108.8 0.42 0.16 0.42
Wyoming 576851 5.9 0.57 0.18 0.25

The theory behind this analysis is to imply that conservative leaning individuals, typically located in less densely populated areas, will show more concern towards areas of policy that concern less densely populated ares (agriculture, land ownership rights, property taxes, etc.)

On the other hand, left-leaning individuals who typically live in more densely populated areas will show interest in policies that concern population centers. Education policies, social issues, and crime reform may be included.

*An Independent state is defined as a state where the the proportion of Republican and Democrat voters are within 2.5 percentage points.

Conclusion

While there is a bit of variability with states in the middle quartiles, it is clear that that the states with the highest population densities tend lean Democrat, while the states with the lowest population densities tend to lean Republican.

The limitation with this analysis is that while it can generalize party affiliation in a given area based on population density, suggesting that those with similar values tend to live in similar areas, it does an incredibly poor job of explaining the variance that happens from general election to general election, or even worse, what happens in state and local elections. Therefore, there are other factors at play that can (A) sway voters from one party to another, particularly voters that live in “purple” or independent* states, or (B) there are other socioeconomic factors that affect a voter’s party affiliation.

Analysis #2: Do Independent Votes Count?

How much did the independent voters affect this election?

Below is a table of the 31 states that allow voters to indicate party affiliation on voter registration forms
State Total Registrants Democratics Republicans Independents Other
Alaska 599465 76948 143632 348199 30685
Arizona 4290348 1334001 1478781 1442812 34753
Arkansas 1765681 88508 123726 1552654 792
California 21941212 10261984 5249974 5096197 1333056
Colorado 3795559 1043269 938384 1745466 68439
Connecticut 2472466 905268 497981 1028066 41150
Delaware 760788 362002 209358 173663 15764
Florida 14395281 4963722 5233366 3939389 258803
Idaho 992332 128832 574005 274417 15077
Iowa 2223700 702652 761450 739850 19747
Kansas 1951099 503746 858429 565871 23052
Kentucky 3573760 1605744 1618444 139078 210493
Louisiana 3006527 1190831 1002624 813071 0
Maine 1114582 395893 313866 358909 45913
Maryland 4140894 2240975 995286 834325 70307
Massachusetts 4838359 1434356 436379 2911268 56355
Nebraska 1240158 345268 604988 268291 21610
Nevada 2169364 718424 637530 640961 172448
New Hampshire 1044108 326735 309281 408091 0
New Jersey 6475638 2531848 1524185 2338648 80956
New Mexico 1353869 600453 421422 303621 28372
New York 12975047 6459542 2841286 2996889 677329
North Carolina 7374566 2492551 2216022 2616059 49933
Oklahoma 2272602 697141 1151026 405010 19424
Oregon 2971604 1011945 729316 1031569 198773
Pennsylvania 8766097 4003126 3462803 926826 373341
Rhode Island 712945 290805 97879 324260 0
South Dakota 589363 150760 291956 142538 4108
Utah 1894316 268576 956364 561031 108344
West Virginia 1146071 380765 447984 267355 49966
Wyoming 295198 30271 235298 26866 2762

*Data courtesy of Ballotopedia\(_4\)

Total Proportion of Independent Voters within these 31 States: 28.602%

As estimated by the Pew Research Center: 18.387%

Estimate of Independent Voters in the U.S. as a whole according the Pew Research Center: 18.464%

One reason why the Pew Research Center’s estimate of independent voters may underestimate the true proportion of registered voters is because those registered as “independent” in the 31 states where registering as an independent is allowed may actually be more left or right leaning when sampled. In other words, a center-right voter may have registered as an independent in Utah, but when sampled by the Pew Research Center, they may have indicated themselves as a Republican voter as that is what they will vote in a pluralistic amount of races.

Highest proportion of Independent voters in each state*
State Independents
Arkansas 87.935%
Massachusetts 60.171%
Alaska 58.085%
Colorado 45.987%
Rhode Island 45.482%
Connecticut 41.581%
New Hampshire 39.085%
New Jersey 36.115%
North Carolina 35.474%
Oregon 34.714%
Arizona 33.629%
Iowa 33.271%
Maine 32.201%
Utah 29.617%
Nevada 29.546%
Kansas 29.003%
Idaho 27.654%
Florida 27.366%
Louisiana 27.044%
South Dakota 24.185%
West Virginia 23.328%
California 23.227%
New York 23.097%
Delaware 22.827%
New Mexico 22.426%
Nebraska 21.634%
Maryland 20.148%
Oklahoma 17.821%
Pennsylvania 10.573%
Wyoming 9.101%
Kentucky 3.892%

*As of October of 2022

Closest Races from the 2022 Midterms

All close races from the 2022 Midterm Elections*
State District Victor Margin Type Independents
COLORADO CO-3 R 0.2 House 45.987
CALIFORNIA CA-13 R 0.4 House 23.227
+MICHIGAN MI-10 R 0.5 House 18.000
ARIZONA - D 0.6 Governor 33.629
IOWA IA-3 R 0.6 House 33.271
NEW MEXICO NM-2 D 0.6 House 22.426
COLORADO CO-8 D 0.7 House 45.987
ARIZONA AZ-1 R 0.8 House 33.629
CONNECTICUT CT-5 D 0.8 House 41.581
NEW YORK NY-17 R 0.8 House 23.097
+WASHINGTON WA-3 D 0.8 House 19.000
NEVADA - D 0.9 Senate 29.546
+WISCONSIN - R 1.0 Senate 23.000
NEW YORK NY-18 D 1.0 House 23.097
NEW YORK NY-22 R 1.0 House 23.097
+GEORGIA - D 1.2 Senate 16.000
NEVADA - R 1.4 Governor 29.546
ARIZONA AZ-6 R 1.4 House 33.629
OREGON OR-5 R 2.0 House 34.714
PENNSYLVANIA PA-7 D 2.0 House 10.573
KANSAS - D 2.1 Governor 29.003
NEW YORK NY-19 R 2.2 House 23.097
CALIFORNIA CA-34 D 2.4 House 23.227
PENNSYLVANIA PA-8 D 2.4 House 10.573
OREGON OR-6 D 2.5 House 34.714

*A close race is define as whether a the victor is determined within 2.5 percentage points.

+The table is mapped with respect to proportion of independent voters as denoted by the table found before. For Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington, the Pew Research Center table estimates are substituted in as these are states without official independent voter registry status.

Data in this data set is primarily taken from Politico\(_5\), supplemented with data from Ballotpedia\(_4\), and the Pew Research Center\(_3\).

*Independent voter percentage is based off of registered voters from the 31 states where it’s possible to indicate “Independent” as a valid party affiliation. States annotated with a (+) do not have Independent party affiliation voter registry privileges. Estimates from the Pew Research Center are used instead.

Average mean of independent voters in key elections from the 2022 Midterms: 27.346%

Average national mean (excluding statistics from key elections & filtered out for outliers): 21.887%

An outlier would be a state like Arkansas since it is a solid (R) state despite it having an unusual high independent voter population. That statistic also disagrees with the Pew Research Center’s estimate thus prompting further investigation.

In this final analysis we will see if there is a (significant) discrepancy between the percentage of Independent voters in the close race samples compared to the expected percentage of independent voters.

Essentially what we’re asking is did the independent voters in the sample make a significant difference in the election outcomes? Or is it more or less representative of any given election result.

T-test for unequal variance

t-statistic = 2.110498 Degrees of freedom = 52.5377309

P Value: 0.0449548

Conclusion

On the surface, it does seem that a higher proportion of independent voters influence key elections. In other words, in key election races, it is evident that there may be a higher number of registered and estimated\(_3\) independent voters. Upon statistical analysis, there is significant evidence to conclude that a key elections in this year’s Midterms were influenced by independent voters. The conclusion is that key races were close partly due to the fact that there were a high proportion of independent voters registered to vote.

That being said, while independent voters undoubtedly had some influence, it is impossible to conclude the magnitude of their influence the key elections examined within the scope of this analysis. A further multivariate analysis will be required. It is possible that voter turnout is another possible key factor. This analysis is limited in that it cannot particularly analyze the proportions of those registered independent voters that actually showed up to vote in the 2022 Midterms.